Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.171839 20.715999 23.463784 26.649016 30.236646 34.149423 38.737082
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.263055 17.660334 21.615300 26.547644 32.521694 39.510368 48.292583
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.482281 16.289447 20.937128 27.005962 34.697123 44.093368 56.414795
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 10.995387 15.036222 20.181330 27.177652 36.403548 48.109270 64.037175
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.708012 13.831603 19.278935 26.952131 37.424569 51.151921 70.432376
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.822027 13.044615 18.811091 27.195399 38.995821 54.919383 77.922784
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.278523 12.659810 18.825357 28.049478 41.395083 59.876848 87.253518
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.481282 11.819800 18.104937 27.770119 42.129106 62.513592 93.439040
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.489387 10.588883 16.700346 26.356170 41.078502 62.491364 95.742093
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.150998 10.325447 16.706964 27.030748 43.131585 67.047394 104.941268
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.859288 10.104862 16.751807 27.748535 45.269019 71.814205 114.678365
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.402661 9.573085 16.260176 27.573434 45.985380 74.435112 121.244297
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.905583 8.940299 15.571956 27.053757 46.153828 76.269322 126.781324
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.557697 8.532401 15.221332 27.059390 47.164941 79.476749 134.663729
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.321063 8.296016 15.134859 27.489175 48.881219 83.876079 144.658888
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.064525 8.000143 14.920304 27.676096 50.185750 87.653078 153.806182
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.765794 7.599126 14.487595 27.442606 50.738335 90.186563 160.976371
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.565613 7.365703 14.335194 27.691401 52.134548 94.194113 170.817107
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.467047 7.319422 14.519561 28.559601 54.674002 100.276194 184.511573
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.222967 6.964526 14.100382 28.275632 55.100653 102.683151 191.877756
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.858027 6.333520 13.108179 26.837456 53.304764 101.047285 191.959735
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.773241 6.273369 13.218461 27.523595 55.518950 106.708455 205.430659
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.697598 6.225824 13.348838 28.253639 57.850726 112.684607 219.740098